Addis Ababa: Reports of troop movements and sporadic clashes in northern Ethiopia have emerged in recent months, creating concerns that a fragile calm could soon collapse. The region is still recovering from a brutal two-year civil war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal government forces—a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives before ending with the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.
According to Deutsche Welle, during the war, Eritrean troops supported Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's campaign against the TPLF. Critics warned that peace would remain fragile without Eritrea at the negotiating table. President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea, who has ruled for decades, was notably absent from the talks held in Pretoria.
Following the conflict, General Tadesse Werede, former commander of the defeated Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), was appointed head of the Tigray interim government in Mekele. He has urged caution against misinformation and vowed, "There will be no war and no provocation from Tigray's side."
On the other side, TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael has been accused of cooperating with Eritrea, a claim he strongly denies. Debretsion has called for a political resolution grounded in the Pretoria agreement, urging the international community to pressure the Ethiopian government, its agents, and allies to refrain from preparing for war.
Despite reassurances, fear among civilians is spreading. Residents of Mekele have expressed concerns, withdrawing money from banks and stockpiling essentials. They are calling on TPLF factions to collaborate with the central government to resolve the crisis and prevent war.
Eritrea's interest in a fragmented Ethiopia remains evident. Gerrit Kurtz, a Horn of Africa expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), noted that Eritrea benefits when Ethiopia is weakened and internally fragmented. Observers claim Eritrea has trained armed groups inside Ethiopia, including the Fano militia in the Amhara region.
According to a report by The Sentry, a US-based watchdog group, Eritrea has used its involvement in the Tigray conflict to strengthen its position significantly. The report highlights systematic looting of Tigray and illicit trade in goods and people, benefitting Eritrea financially.
The 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which ended years of hostility, was a pivotal moment, yet Afwerki was left out of the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Prime Minister Abiy. The Sentry documented how Eritrea used the peace deal to lift the UN arms embargo and subsequently bought weapons, including from Russia. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed the report as a "fabricated narrative" meant to scapegoat Eritrea.