Day: October 2, 2021

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Fact-Checking Biden’s Claim US Is World’s ‘Arsenal of Vaccines’

WHITE HOUSE — At the virtual COVID-19 summit on the margins of the U.N. General Assembly last week, U.S. President Joe Biden announced an additional donation of 500 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine to low-income and lower-middle-income countries, bringing total U.S. pledged donations to 1.1 billion shots.

“I made — and I’m keeping — the promise that America will become the arsenal of vaccines as we were the arsenal of democracy during World War II,” Biden said at the summit.

Here are some facts and context surrounding that claim.

How many doses has the US pledged and shipped?

Of the 1.1 billion doses the U.S. has promised, nearly 172 million have been shipped to more than 100 countries, according to the State Department.

Most are distributed via COVAX, the global vaccine-sharing initiative co-led by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the World Health Organization; and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, and some through bilateral agreements.

This makes the U.S. the global leader in both pledged and shipped doses, according to data compiled by the Duke Global Health Innovation Center as of October 1.

The next-largest pledges come from the European Union (500 million), France (120 million), and the United Kingdom, Germany and China (100 million each).

Countries that have shipped the most donations after the U.S. are China (47 million), EU (33.8 million), Japan (21.5 million) and Germany (9.9 million).

The 1.1 billion doses pledged is in line with the administration’s commitment to donate three shots for every shot administered domestically. So far, 392 million shots have been given in the U.S.

The question is when the U.S. will deliver on the rest of its commitment of almost 1 billion doses.

“The claim about being an arsenal of vaccines for the world is a great talking point,” said Krishna Udayakumar, founding director of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. “It would be great to see put into action.”

The U.S. has shipped only 15% of the 1.1 billion doses it has promised. It is lagging behind other countries with considerably less ambitious donation goals, including China (46%), Japan (30%) and France (8%).

When and to whom will the rest be shipped?

The White House said 200 million more doses would go out by year’s end, and the remaining 800 million will be sent by September 2022.

“The world can’t wait that long,” said Matthew Kavanagh, director of the Global Health Policy and Politics Initiative at Georgetown University. He said the U.S. should be ramping up shipments now, particularly if it wants to meet its target to support the WHO’s goal of having at least 70% of the world’s population fully vaccinated in every country and income category by September 2022.

The administration has not provided a plan identifying the countries slated for future shipments. Jeremy Konyndyk, executive director of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s COVID-19 Task Force, said countries already signed up with COVAX and ready to receive and distribute the vaccines would be first in line. Those that are not will be supplied with vaccines as their capacity to receive them grows.

“It’s really hard to project over that full time period where any individual country will shake out,” Konyndyk said. “We’re kind of working it out and making adjustments as we go along depending on how the pandemic evolves.”

How much surplus does the US have?

The administration does not make public the number of doses it has in reserve and those it has secured for domestic needs in the production pipelines of vaccine manufacturers. The numbers are constantly in flux, an administration official told VOA.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that 82 million doses have been distributed across the country but not yet administered. Humanitarian organizations allege that the U.S. is sitting on an even larger stockpile.

“They must now get these doses — and more of the 593 million excess doses the U.S. will have by the end of the year — out the door and into the arms of people in low- and middle-income countries,” said Dr. Carrie Teicher, director of programs for Doctors Without Borders USA, responding to Biden’s announcement of an additional 500 million doses.

Data compiled by analytics company Airfinity on COVID-19 vaccine stock in the U.S., EU, U.K., Canada and China — countries with the biggest surpluses — show an excess of close to 670 million doses by the end of September. This projection factored in those countries offering booster shots to people 12 and older six months after their second doses.

Airfinity data also predict that 241 million doses of vaccines stockpiled in the Group of Seven leading industrial nations will expire by December without immediate redistribution.

Is the global vaccine shortage a question of production capacity or distribution?

Airfinity data show vaccine manufacturers currently produce 1.5 billion doses per month. It forecasts a total global production of 12.2 billion doses for 2021, of which 6.5 billion are Western vaccines and 5.7 billion are Chinese.

This would mean the goal set by the WHO of 11.3 billion doses required to vaccinate the world’s population could be achieved in months, providing wealthy nations do not continue to cushion their reserves to provide booster shots and guard against new variants before lower-income countries get their first shots.

“Wealthy countries bought up most of the world’s supply of vaccines and have not moved fast enough in creating a global plan to get these vaccines delivered and distributed where they are needed around the world,” said Sarah Swinehart, spokesperson for the ONE Campaign, an organization formed to fight poverty and preventable diseases.

High-income countries have now administered almost 100 doses for every 100 people, while low-income countries have administered just 1.5 doses, according to the WHO.

If there is high production capacity, why aren’t producers exporting them?

“If we’re going to be the arsenal of vaccines, we actually have to export vaccines, not just donate them once in a while,” said Udayakumar of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. Separate from the doses donated by the administration, American vaccine producers have exported 161 million doses for sale, far below China (1.1 billion) and the EU (nearly 800 million).

Most exports still go to higher-income countries, and some export restrictions are still in place. This week, the EU extended a mechanism to potentially limit vaccine exports until the end of 2021 because of the bloc’s need to secure booster shots.

India, the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines, stopped exports in April to focus on inoculating its own population as infections surged. It will resume exports in October.

The WHO is also urging scaling up manufacturing through technology transfer. In June, it announced the first COVID-19 mRNA vaccine technology transfer hub, to be set up in South Africa.

The world health body also called for the so-called Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement waiver, or TRIPS waiver, the suspension of intellectual property rights for vaccines at the World Trade Organization, so that countries can access vaccine “recipes” and produce their own without fear of legal action.

The TRIPS waiver proposal, submitted by South Africa and India in October 2020, is supported by more than 100 countries, 100 Nobel laureates and prominent human rights groups, but it cannot move forward without the consensus of all WTO members. The EU, U.K. and Switzerland oppose the waiver.

Didn’t the US support the TRIPS waiver?

We have not seen the full weight of the U.S. diplomatic corps engaging on this topic, said Matthew Rose, director of U.S. policy and advocacy for the Health Global Access Project. “In multiple TRIPS council meetings, the U.S. has been mostly silent in reaching a consensus and moving the council to text-based negotiations,” he said.

In May, the U.S. said it broadly supported the proposal to waive TRIPS, but it has since declined to support the proposal as it is, in effect helping prolong negotiations.

Instead of leading, the Biden administration has largely stayed on the sidelines of TRIPS negotiations, said Abby Maxman, president and CEO of Oxfam America, an organization aiming to end global poverty. “We cannot vaccinate 70% of the world with the same tools that have vaccinated only 1% of Africa so far.”

The office of U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, who is leading the TRIPS waiver negotiations at the WTO, did not respond to a request for comment.

The TRIPS waiver received little attention at the COVID-19 summit that Biden convened. Except for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, no other leaders from wealthy nations, including Biden, mentioned it in their remarks.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told VOA that the administration expects TRIPS waiver negotiations to be a lengthy process and that it has “never been the only basket that we’re focused on.”

Source: Voice of America

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In Nigeria, Civilian Patrols Try to Deter Kidnappings, Other Crime

KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA — Auwal checked his two guns before another night of patrolling his village in Nigeria’s northwestern state of Kaduna.

“I have decided to arm myself with these guns to protect my family because the government has failed to keep us safe,” said Auwal, whose real name — like those of other volunteers and of the village itself — is not disclosed here for security reasons.

Auwal belongs to a volunteer youth patrol trying to protect the community from criminal gangs — so-called bandits — who swoop in on motorcycles to kidnap people, steal livestock and otherwise spread terror.

With abductions and violent attacks rampant in northern Nigeria, some civilians like Auwal have grown impatient with government security forces’ inability to protect them and have taken up arms themselves.

Kaduna state is at the epicenter of violence that has traumatized Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. Kidnapping for ransom has surged, with Kaduna’s government reporting 1,723 people kidnapped in the first six months of 2021, compared with nearly 2,000 for the entire previous year. Many of the bandit attacks have been deadly, with at least 545 people killed from January through June.

Buhari’s pledge

The administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, elected in 2015 after campaigning to improve security, has faced criticism for the rising violence. In early September, Buhari ordered security agencies to step up their efforts to protect the public, especially in the besieged north.

Separately, several states — Kaduna, Sokoto, Zamfara and Katsina — in September began trying to curb bandit gangs by banning motorcycle use, limiting petrol sales and interrupting telecommunications service.

Meanwhile, some communities have become increasingly self-reliant. Aliyu, another young man in Auwal’s village, said rising insecurity compelled him to join the patrols, which sometimes get donations of weapons and money from elders and other neighbors.

“This has become necessary to keep our families safe,” Aliyu said. “Cattle rustlers and kidnappers have been terrorizing us. … They are killing us, too. We can’t fold our arms and allow this to continue.”

Nasiru Sani’s support for community patrols came after an attack on his family’s compound one night in December.

“Through the window, I saw six people with guns. They shouted, ‘… We are Boko Haram. We will kill you if you don’t open the door,’” Sani said. “They put their guns through my window and started firing into the room. I held one of the guns, but they overpowered me. They shot me several times.”

The 40-year-old spoke from the Kaduna hospital where he was treated in January for multiple gunshot wounds. While recovering, Sani also was trying to free his pregnant wife.

“They kidnapped my wife,” Sani said, “and demanded a ransom of 500,000 naira” — just over $1,200. “We raised the money and sent someone to deliver it. But they abducted the messenger, too, and asked for more money.”

Sani’s wife finally was released in late February, after he paid a total of 1 million naira, or more than $2,400. She gave birth to a son in March.

Risks of civilian patrols

When communities resort to armed civilian patrols, members often are risking their lives. In Kaduna state, bandits killed at least four vigilantes in Dande village in May and another five in Udawa community in September, according to local media reports. In neighboring Niger state, bandits killed 30 vigilantes in a single incident in June.

Sometimes, patrols suffer self-inflicted wounds.

Neighborhood patrols say they’ve been getting guns through back channels, especially after a 2019 federal ban on civilian gun ownership. But those weapons can be defective, as a man named Jafar explained. His homemade gun unexpectedly discharged during patrol, wounding his hand. Nonetheless, Jafar reasoned, “It’s better to sustain this injury than to be kidnapped from my house. Kidnappers may demand a ransom that I cannot afford.”

Armed civilian patrols have been accused of vigilante justice, including summary executions. In Niger state alone, at least 86 people were arbitrarily killed in the first four months of 2021, according to the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, a group representing ethnic Fulani herders.

Security analysts have attributed most kidnapping attacks to young, nomadic Fulani men, fueling anti-Fulani sentiment that has exposed others to random attacks. Fatalities have been reported in other parts of the country, too.

The federal ban on civilian gun ownership is reinforced by Kaduna state law, said the state’s security commissioner, Samuel Aruwan. He said violators face prosecution.

“It is illegal to possess firearms without a license,” he said. “… There is no justification for individuals or citizens to take arms against fellow citizens. If you feel someone is threatening you, you should report to security agencies.”

Contrary view

In August, northern Katsina state’s Governor Aminu Bello called for civilians to arm themselves against so-called outlaws. But some security experts say arming civilians escalates problems.

“In certain instances, community leaders or militia leaders distribute weapons,” security expert Kabir Adamu told VOA’s Hausa Service. “The consequence … is it further drives the conflict.”

Source: Voice of America